A user-friendly guide to using distance measures to compare time series in ecology.

Time series are a critical component of ecological analysis, used to track changes in biotic and abiotic variables. Information can be extracted from the properties of time series for tasks such as classification (e.g., assigning species to individual bird calls); clustering (e.g., clustering similar responses in population dynamics to abrupt changes in the environment or management interventions); prediction (e.g., accuracy of model predictions to original time series data); and anomaly detection (e.g., detecting possible catastrophic events from population time series). These common tasks in ecological research all rely on the notion of (dis-) similarity, which can be determined using distance measures. A plethora of distance measures have been described, predominantly in the computer and information sciences, but many have not been introduced to ecologists. Furthermore, little is known about how to select appropriate distance measures for time-series-related tasks. Therefore, many potential applications remain unexplored. Here, we describe 16 properties of distance measures that are likely to be of importance to a variety of ecological questions involving time series. We then test 42 distance measures for each property and use the results to develop an objective method to select appropriate distance measures for any task and ecological dataset. We demonstrate our selection method by applying it to a set of real-world data on breeding bird populations in the UK and discuss other potential applications for distance measures, along with associated technical issues common in ecology. Our real-world population trends exhibit a common challenge for time series comparisons: a high level of stochasticity. We demonstrate two different ways of overcoming this challenge, first by selecting distance measures with properties that make them well suited to comparing noisy time series and second by applying a smoothing algorithm before selecting appropriate distance measures. In both cases, the distance measures chosen through our selection method are not only fit-for-purpose but are consistent in their rankings of the population trends. The results of our study should lead to an improved understanding of, and greater scope for, the use of distance measures for comparing ecological time series and help us answer new ecological questions.

Quantifying reliability and data deficiency in global vertebrate population trends using the Living Planet Index.

Global biodiversity is facing a crisis, which must be solved through effective policies and on-the-ground conservation. But governments, NGOs, and scientists need reliable indicators to guide research, conservation actions, and policy decisions. Developing reliable indicators is challenging because the data underlying those tools is incomplete and biased. For example, the Living Planet Index tracks the changing status of global vertebrate biodiversity, but taxonomic, geographic and temporal gaps and biases are present in the aggregated data used to calculate trends. However, without a basis for real-world comparison, there is no way to directly assess an indicator's accuracy or reliability. Instead, a modelling approach can be used. We developed a model of trend reliability, using simulated datasets as stand-ins for the "real world", degraded samples as stand-ins for indicator datasets (e.g., the Living Planet Database), and a distance measure to quantify reliability by comparing partially sampled to fully sampled trends. The model revealed that the proportion of species represented in the database is not always indicative of trend reliability. Important factors are the number and length of time series, as well as their mean growth rates and variance in their growth rates, both within and between time series. We found that many trends in the Living Planet Index need more data to be considered reliable, particularly trends across the global south. In general, bird trends are the most reliable, while reptile and amphibian trends are most in need of additional data. We simulated three different solutions for reducing data deficiency, and found that collating existing data (where available) is the most efficient way to improve trend reliability, whereas revisiting previously studied populations is a quick and efficient way to improve trend reliability until new long-term studies can be completed and made available.

Achieving a real-time online monitoring system for conservation culturomics.

Environmental monitoring is increasingly shifting toward a set of systems that describe changes in real time. In ecology specifically, a series of challenges have prevented the rollout of real-time monitoring for features such as biodiversity change or ecosystem service provision. Conservation culturomics, a field concerned with interactions between people and nature, is well placed to demonstrate how monitoring might move toward a network of real-time platforms, given its existence exclusively in the digital realm. We examined a set of considerations associated with the development of real-time monitoring platforms for conservation culturomics and introduce a near real-time platform for the Species Awareness Index, a global index of changing biodiversity awareness derived from the rate of change in page views for species on Wikipedia. This platform will update automatically each month, operating in near real time (https://joemillard.shinyapps.io/Real_time_SAI/). There are plans to make the underlying data queryable via an application programing interface independent of the platform. The real-time Species Awareness Index will represent the first real-time and entirely automated conservation culturomic platform and one of the first real-time platforms in the discipline of ecology. Real-time monitoring for culturomics can provide insight into human-nature interactions as they play out in the physical realm and provide a framework for the development of real-time monitoring in ecology. Real-time monitoring metrics can be processed on private virtual machines and hosted on publicly available cloud services. Conservation now needs an online, real-time observatory that can evolve with the structure of the web.

Obtención de un sistema virtual de monitoreo en tiempo real para la culturomía de la conservación Resumen El monitoreo ambiental se enfoca cada vez más en un conjunto de sistemas que describen los cambios en tiempo real. En cuanto a la ecología, una serie de obstáculos ha impedido el despliegue del monitoreo en tiempo real para funciones como el cambio en la biodiversidad o el suministro de servicios ambientales. La culturomía de la conservación, un campo enfocado en las interacciones entre las personas y la naturaleza, es una buena opción para demostrar cómo el monitoreo podría transformarse en una red de plataformas en tiempo real, dado que sólo existe en el ámbito digital. Analizamos una serie de consideraciones asociadas con el desarrollo de plataformas de monitoreo en tiempo real para la culturomía de la conservación e introdujimos una plataforma casi en tiempo real para el Índice de Conciencia de Especies, un índice mundial del cambio en la conciencia sobre la biodiversidad derivado de la tasa de cambio en las visitas a las páginas de Wikipedia de diferentes especies. Esta plataforma se actualizará automáticamente cada mes, por lo que opera casi en tiempo real (https://joemillard.shinyapps.io/Real_time_SAI/). Existen planes para hacer que los datos subyacentes sean consultables por medio de una interfaz de programación de aplicaciones independiente de la plataforma. El Índice de Conciencia de Especies en tiempo real será la primera plataforma de culturomía de la conservación automatizada por completo y en tiempo real, así como una de las primeras plataformas de este tipo para la disciplina de la ecología. El monitoreo en tiempo real de la culturomía puede proporcionar información sobre las interacciones humano-naturaleza conforme se desarrollan en el ámbito físico y también un marco de trabajo para el desarrollo del monitoreo en tiempo real para la ecología. Las medidas del monitoreo en tiempo real pueden procesarse en máquinas virtuales privadas y albergarse en servicios públicos de nubes de almacenamiento. Hoy en día, la conservación necesita un observatorio en línea y en tiempo real que pueda evolucionar con la estructura de la web.

Chemically Mediated Microbial "Gardening" Capacity of a Seaweed Holobiont Is Dynamic.

Terrestrial plants are known to "garden" the microbiota of their rhizosphere via released metabolites (that can attract beneficial microbes and deter pathogenic microbes). Such a "gardening" capacity is also known to be dynamic in plants. Although microbial "gardening" has been recently demonstrated for seaweeds, we do not know whether this capacity is a dynamic property in any aquatic flora like in terrestrial plants. Here, we tested the dynamic microbial "gardening" capacity of seaweeds using the model invasive red seaweed Agarophyton vermiculophyllum. Following an initial extraction of surface-associated metabolites (immediately after field collection), we conducted a long-term mesocosm experiment for 5 months to test the effect of two different salinities (low = 8.5 and medium = 16.5) on the microbial "gardening" capacity of the alga over time. We tested "gardening" capacity of A. vermiculophyllum originating from two different salinity levels (after 5 months treatments) in settlement assays against three disease causing pathogenic bacteria and seven protective bacteria. We also compared the capacity of the alga with field-collected samples. Abiotic factors like low salinity significantly increased the capacity of the alga to deter colonization by pathogenic bacteria while medium salinity significantly decreased the capacity of the alga over time when compared to field-collected samples. However, capacity to attract beneficial bacteria significantly decreased at both tested salinity levels when compared to field-collected samples. Dynamic microbial "gardening" capacity of a seaweed to attract beneficial bacteria and deter pathogenic bacteria is demonstrated for the first time. Such a dynamic capacity as found in the current study could also be applicable to other aquatic host-microbe interactions. Our results may provide an attractive direction of research towards manipulation of salinity and other abiotic factors leading to better defended A. vermiculophyllum towards pathogenic bacteria thereby enhancing sustained production of healthy A. vermiculophyllum in farms.

Salinity and Time Can Alter Epibacterial Communities of an Invasive Seaweed.

The establishment of epibacterial communities is fundamental to seaweed health and fitness, in modulating ecological interactions and may also facilitate adaptation to new environments. Abiotic factors like salinity can determine bacterial abundance, growth and community composition. However, influence of salinity as a driver of epibacterial community composition (until species level) has not been investigated for seaweeds and especially under long time scales. We also do not know how abiotic stressors may influence the 'core' bacterial species of seaweeds. Following an initial (immediately after field collection) sampling of epibacterial community of an invasive red seaweed Agarophyton vermicullophylum, we conducted a long term mesocosm experiment for 5 months, to examine the influence of three different salinities (low, medium and high) at two different time points (3 months after start of experiment and 5 months, i.e., at the end of experiment) on the epibacterial community richness and composition of Agarophyton. Metagenomic sequencing showed that epibacterial communities changed significantly according to salinity and time points sampled. Epibacterial richness was significantly different between low and high salinities at both time points. Epibacterial richness also varied significantly between 3 months (after start of experiment) and 5 months (end of experiment) within low, medium and high salinity level. Irrespective of salinity levels and time points sampled 727 taxa consistently appeared in all Agarophyton samples hinting at the presence of core bacterial species on the surface of the alga. Our results indicate that both salinity and time can be major driving forces in structuring epibacterial communities of seaweeds with respect to richness and ß-diversity. We highlight the necessity of conducting long term experiments allowing us to detect and understand epibacterial succession over time on seaweeds.